2023년, 투자자들은 경제침체를 맞게 될 서양과 중국시장 회복 영향으로 가파른 성장세를 보일 동양 사이에 극명한 경제 차이를 보게 될 것입니다. 내년 중국 재개방 회복세는2022년 재개방 반등세를 이미 자체적으로 경험한 ASEAN-5국가들에 또 한번의 뒷바람으로 작용할 것으로 전망됩니다. 이번 논설에서는 ASEAN-5 국가들이2023년 비교적 완만한 인플레와 세계적으로도 가장 높은 수준의 경제성장률을 시현하며 어떻게 최적 지점(Sweet Spot)을 계속 선점할 수 있을지 다뤄볼 예정입니다.

2022년에는 전세계적으로 투자자들이 플러스 수익률을 낼 수 있는 시장을 찾는 것 자체가 어려웠습니다. 중국시장 역시 H주, A주, ADR주 모두 올해 첫 11개월 간 달러 수익률이 20~29%씩 하락하는 등 매도세에서 벗어날 수 없었는데요. 외국인 투자자들의 순매도세가 이어지는 동안 시장 회전율은 감소하였습니다. 중국 내부적으로 잦은 코로나 봉쇄조치, 부동산 시장 침체, 계속되는 빅테크 감시, 미중 관계 악화 등의 요인 모두 중국 증시 약세 기조에 기여했습니다. 대외적으로는 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁, 높은 인플레 압력, 가속화된 금리 인상 주기, 달러 강세 등의 이벤트들로 인해 위험자산에 대한 투자자 신뢰도가 더욱 약화되었습니다.

The US Federal Reserve has signalled the imminent start of the transition from the Great Stimulus of 2020-2021 to a period with new uncertainties. The Fed’s suggested pace of tapering quantitative easing was at the high end of expectations. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses his thoughts on what to expect regarding US inflation rate and 10Y UST yield, and why we need to brace for more challenging US equity and bond markets with lower return and higher risk coming up on the horizon.

The upward momentum of US equities has slowed considerably over the past 16 months, from the explosive initial rebound in late March last year. Our sense is that we would either see small gains in coming months or indeed a correction in the face of the likely peaks in economic growth, earnings growth, and policy stimulus. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses why investors in US equities may have to lower their returns expectations for 2H21 in the face of what some are calling the “triple peaks”.

Recently we wrote about how investors can navigate “Mr. Market’s manic-depressive mood swings”, cautioning that those swings are likely to get shorter and more frequent. Indeed, Mr. Market may already be getting grumpy again. And it is not quite because things are going badly. It will more likely be because he has gotten ahead of himself in terms of expectations. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shared his thoughts on why a correction is due and it’s important to watch the divergences - as the high growth with low inflation narrative is wearing thin and the US economy may be losing its ability to surprise on the upside.

Navigating Mr. Market’s Mood Swings Warren Buffett – channeling his teacher Benjamin Graham – famously said: “Mr. Market is kind of a drunken psycho. Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed.” In recent times, the market has looked a lot more like the “drunken psycho” of Warren Buffett’s characterisation than usual. In this article our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares his thoughts on how we would navigate through the market swings under signals from rate movements and expectations, economic recovery, covid control and vaccination roll outs, and in the process, the divide between the “vaxed” and the “vaxed-nots”.

We recently completed the annual rebalancing exercise for the two China A shares and Asia Innovative Technology ETFs. In this article our Portfolio Manager Alex and Partner & Co-CIO David will share more about the changes and portfolio characteristics post-rebalancing, which further align with strategic focuses of China’s 14th Five Year Plan, and recalibrate for opportunities in the new normal as COVID recovery in China and Asia enters the next stage.

Premia FAQ

The Chinese economy continues to normalize across the board at an impressive rate, leading to the strong likelihood of it beating the current Bloomberg consensus GDP estimate growth rate of around 2% for 2020.